Sunday, April 19, 2009

Long-range forecast for above-normal summer

Brenda says I'm driving her crazy with my analyzing the spring weather, trying to get a bead on ice-out time. When the ice goes out, she says, it's out. Until then the lake is frozen.
Hah! If only it was that simple!
OK, it may be that simple but what fun is that? Besides, I'm itching to get into camp, get things ready, get firewood cut, docks fixed, etc. before the first fishermen arrive.
So my ears perk up every time I hear or read any weather news.
Weather expert and climatologist Graham Saunders who writes a weekly weather column in the Thunder Bay newspaper, the Chronicle Journal, thinks the lake ice will go off earlier than normal this year! His reasoning is the snow has mostly melted and last week was a great one for melting with temperatures in the teens.

After first making this post an old friend, JP Fraser, e-mailed me to say a flock of white pelicans was seen at Amethyst Harbor on Thunder Bay of Lake Superior today. That's great news because white pelicans need open water to feed so there must be an ice-free patch somewhere.
Another bit of heartening news comes from Environment Canada's three-month long range forecast. It predicts above-normal temperatures for the period April-May-June.
So why am I not cheered by this?
Because I'm looking out the window at snow falling. The temperature is a hair above freezing and we're supposed to have below-normal temperatures the rest of the week.
My best guess for ice-out on Red Lake is still May 16 which is opening week for most camps. The average ice-out for Red Lake is May 8 so, I'm guessing it will be a week later than average.
We are actually opening one week later, May 23, just to be safe.
If those above-normal temperatures are coming they better do it soon.
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